Nobel Prize-winning economist believes the Fed made inflation worse
The Fed's aggressive interest rates derailed the economy and, counterintuitively, made inflation worse, according to Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz.
Although the central bank had to raise rates in 2022 and 2023 to tame post-Covid inflation, Stiglitz believes the pace and magnitude of them were out of proportion.
“I’ve been criticizing the Fed for going too far, too fast,” Stiglitz told CNBC in an interview.
“I thought that put the economy at risk for very little benefit, probably actually worsening inflation, ironically, because if you looked more carefully at the sources of inflation, a big component was housing,” said Stiglitz.
Aggressive rate hikes increased financing costs for housing developers and made it harder for Americans to afford real estate. The end result was a frozen housing market with very little supply, which continued to push home prices higher.
“I believe that they have contributed to the problem of inflation,” Stiglitz said of the Fed.
Although headline inflation has cooled in recent months, the housing component—known as shelter costs—is still uncomfortably high.
As Creditnews reported, the shelter component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is running at more than double the rate of headline inflation.
This largely explains why Americans haven’t found relief from moderating consumer prices and why Stiglitz is calling on the Fed to consider deeper rate cuts.
Although rate cuts are a foregone conclusion for the rest of the year, there’s little evidence that the central bank will entertain anything more than a standard 0.25% reduction.
The Fed is unlikely to change its strategy anytime soon
Although the Fed’s wait-and-see approach to monetary policy is ruffling feathers with economists, policymakers aren't throwing in the towel yet.
Fed chair Powell has been deliberately timid in its policy approach, opting to see more economic data before shifting course. Experts say he doesn't want to risk instilling unnecessary fear in the market.
According to George Lagarias, the chief economist at Forvis Mazars, anything bigger than a standard 0.25% rate cut “might send a wrong message to markets” that the economy is in much worse shape than previously thought.
Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid believes it’s “increasingly hard for the Fed to cut by 50 [basis points] without triggering a significant market surprise.”
Lagarias and Reid generally agree that policymakers wouldn’t vote for a large rate cut unless they feel that the economy could be heading for a recession.
So far, the Fed has been successful in convincing the market that the economy is in a "soft landing."
Even Treasury Secretary and former Fed chief Janet Yellen has echoed the central bank’s messaging. In a recent Bloomberg interview, Yellen claimed that the economy is indeed heading for a “soft landing.”
“While there are risks, it really has been amazing to be able to get inflation down as meaningfully as we have” while maintaining positive growth, said Yellen.
More from Creditnews:
- Falling CPI masks a lingering problem facing Americans
- "Profiteering" is not the reason for soaring grocery prices, study shows
- Worst of both worlds: Homes have become smaller and much more expensive
- Millennials are 300% richer than they were in 2016, but there’s a catch
- Half-point rate cut in the cards? Ex-Fed governor says the central bank 'will go big now’
- Charlie Bilello: Those calling for jumbo-sized rate cuts should be careful what they wish for