The economy is ‘slowing for the right reasons,’ Wells Fargo says
After the Fed hiked interest rates to 23-year highs, a slowing economy is just what "the doctor ordered," according to Sameer Samana, a senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“Things are slowing, and they’re slowing for the right reasons,” Samana told Morningstar, referring to the recent pullbacks in consumer spending and hiring.
In Samana’s view, slower growth is needed to help recalibrate the economy and take the pressure off businesses that have struggled to turn a profit since the pandemic.
“The last couple of years, economic growth has been positive, but profit growth has been basically flat,” he explained.
Following the pandemic, “growth was so overwhelming and came at a time of such weird supply chain dislocations and labor market scarcity that companies weren’t able to actually generate any profitability off of it,” Samana said.
So, they passed higher costs on to the consumer. Between January 2020 and May 2024, prices for basic grocery items jumped 26% and a whopping 30% more for cheaper brands.
The Consumer Price Index peaked more than two years ago, but Americans are still suffering from what's known as "cumulative inflation." This is the biggest reason Americans have such negative views about the economy.
If the economic slowdown continues, the Fed is likely to respond by lowering interest rates, giving Americans a much-needed break from rising borrowing costs.
Exactly what the Fed wants
Slower growth that reduces inflation without tipping the economy into a recession is exactly what the Fed is trying to achieve with its “soft landing” approach.
According to the Department of Commerce, U.S. GDP expanded by just 1.4% in the first quarter, less than half of the fourth quarter’s growth pace. “We’ve gone from a period of above-trend growth to below-trend growth,” said UBS senior economist Brian Rose.
Because of this below-trend growth, Wall Street expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September.
“I think that there’ll be enough softness and coolness in the economy for [the Fed] to begin to cut rates” in September and December, said David Kelly, the chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there's a 100% probability of a September rate cut.
The interest rates the Fed sets impact Americans' finances directly and indirectly. Perhaps the most noticeable effect will be in the mortgage and auto loan markets, where high interest rates capped borrowing.
The Fed's biggest headache right now is timing: waiting too long could tip the economy into a recession, while cutting too early could reignite inflation."
Economists like Aaron Back, Mark Zandi, and Mohamed El-Erian believe the central bank is already behind the curve and should have started cutting months ago.